The weaner market was expected to open with prices well over $4/kg liveweight, probably $4.50 to $4.80.
“Inquiry levels are starting to build up and the first weaner calves are an eagerly anticipated part of the annual cattle cycle,” she said.
Buying weaners was a way of stocking up with the lowest financial outlay.
On the demand side there was a shortage of store cattle, especially in regions like Northland and Waikato with good growing conditions in autumn and spring.
Drystock farmers were trying to replace dairy grazers kept on dairy farms to cut agistment costs.
The supply side of the weaner market was less clear because of a delay in releasing weekly bobby calf slaughter figures over winter and of the numbers of dairy calves reared.
Anecdotally, financially hard-pressed dairy farmers reared more calves this year, probably including more dairy-beef crossbreds.
Those keenly sought Friesian, Friesian-cross and whiteface calves would be showing up in the yards from the end of September onwards, Agnew said.
Farmers who wanted to stock up were going to have to watch other fundamentals – the spring weather, exchange rates and falling slaughter schedules.
There was a disconnect between high sale yard prices 55c to 60c/kg LW higher than this time last spring and slaughter prices 35c to 50c/kg CW down on last year.
“The sale yards remain the place to sell cattle as good buyer turnout is keeping competition and prices red hot.
“Many are shaking their heads at the money being paid in the yards.
“While the arrival of spring and a shortage of cattle are underpinning the market, prices are so out of whack with schedules that making any money at current levels is questionable,” Agnew said.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand economic service director Rob Davison said more dairy bull calves were retained and reared this year and he expected the bobby calf kill to be down 4% or more.
That would be 90-100,000 fewer calves through the meat processing plants, two-thirds of the reduction because of fewer dairy cows calved and the other one-third because of onfarm retention.
The retention rate would show up in higher numbers of weaner calves traded through the yards then in bull slaughter numbers in 2017-18.
The bobby calf kill was provisionally down 2% year-to-date, Davison said.
